Editorial: Japan’s rice shortage a failure of gov’t policy past and present

Rice shortages have become noticeable in Japan’s stores since August. While the scarcity is gradually easing as this year’s rice harvest hits the market, the impact of tight supply and demand lingers. At the same time, rising fertilizer prices have also led to soaring prices.

Extreme summer heat has reduced the availability of high-quality rice, while the recovery in foreign tourist numbers has increased demand for the staple in the food service industry. On top of that, there was panic buying after the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a bulletin over a possible Nankai Trough earthquake, which further strained supply.

However, unlike the 1993 “rice crisis,” when a cold summer led to poor harvests and forced Japan to import the grain, this year’s crop conditions were about average. The increase in consumption by inbound travelers is estimated to account for only about 0.4% of overall demand. The panic buying was also a temporary phenomenon.

Japan may be losing the capacity to respond to unexpected demand fluctuations. The supply base for the staple food needs to be inspected.

The agriculture ministry has stated that there was no significant overall inventory shortage. Nevertheless, there is concern that while rice to fulfill commercial demand was secured, retail supplies became depleted. Some were sounding the alarm about dwindling stock levels as early as June. The distribution situation should have been monitored more closely, and measures should have been put in place.

Yet, agricultural policies that prioritize maintaining rice prices have contributed to a decline in supply capacity. Even after the abolition of the production quota system, policies to suppress table rice production by providing subsidies for feed rice and other alternatives continue. Farmland dedicated to rice has decreased by nearly 20% over the past decade.

Preparations for climate change are also inadequate. Heat-resistant rice varieties account for only about 15% of the total rice planted. Last year in Niigata Prefecture, a renowned rice-producing region, the percentage of top-grade Koshihikari rice plummeted to about 5% of total output, a shock for an area where it typically hovers above 80%.

Rice farmers are also aging, with about 90% now at least 60 years old. Without accelerating the consolidation of farmland into the hands of motivated, younger farmers, production will continue to decline.

While passing on costs is necessary, setting rice prices beyond what’s reasonable will lead to consumers turning away from Japan’s traditional staple. Chronic supply shortages and surging prices must be avoided. It is crucial to correct the distortions in agricultural policy that have prioritized balancing supply and demand over production.

Simply following the conventional path will not foster the growth of capable farming operations. It is time to expedite the transition to a more dynamic agricultural industry by consolidating farmland for efficient production and exploring new demand in exports, food processing, and the food service industry.